In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
Equity indices faced a heavy drubbing on Thursday after an initial rally, with Sensex tanking 1,045.60 points amid a largely bearish trend overseas after the US Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75 basis points.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser from the Sensex pack, skidding 1.83 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, HCL Technologies, IndusInd Bank and Nestle. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan, Infosys, HDFC Bank, HDFC and ITC were the gainers.
India's exports to Iran have been falling over the last one year, amid decline in rupee reserves of the West Asian economy. Going ahead, the possibility of augmenting exports to Iran may not be easy for India, considering the geopolitical tensions - Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts - and the West Asian country's support for Russia and Hamas, people aware of the matter said. Exports to Iran saw a downward spiral since November last year.
'I found it unbelievable that L&T said 45,000 jobs were waiting to be filled because of unavailability of suitable skillsets.' 'So, when the Opposition sweepingly says there are no jobs, I'm sorry... I'm not saying it's raining jobs, but there are jobs. The (skill) gap has to be bridged.'
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
Investors may take a 5 to 10 per cent exposure to silver. 'Have a long-term investment horizon when investing in silver ETFs to ride out short-term market fluctuations.'
Rajya Sabha witnessed heated exchanges between the treasury and opposition benches after Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge made remarks on the manner in which political parties select women candidates from weaker sections and raised the issue of 'delayed' GST payments to non-Bharatiya Janata Party ruled states.
When the Centre tries to encroach upon the subjects that are under the prerogative of the state, or where the centre tries to evade from any responsibility guaranteed to a state through a constitutional provision/obligation, it poses a threat to federalism.
While gold added Rs 310 to hit the record level, silver rose by Rs 800 to Rs 62,000 per kilogram.
The rupee on Wednesday declined by 16 paise to close at its fresh lifetime low of 77.60 against the US dollar amid unabated foreign fund outflows and a stronger greenback in overseas markets. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.57 and later hit the day's low of 77.61 as the dollar rebounded in global markets following hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. Crude oil prices also surged over 1 per cent, which weighed on the rupee.
Yellen, 74, was confirmed by the Senate in a broad bipartisan support of 84-15 votes on Monday. Both the Democratic and the Republican parties have 50 members in the 100-seat Senate.
Referring to the ED's claim about the politician eating mangoes, sweets, aalo-poori etc regularly, he said these were provided to him only a few times.
The rupee appreciated 7 paise to 79.74 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday as a positive trend in domestic equities supported the local unit. However, a strong American currency overseas and forex outflows restricted the rupee's gain, dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 79.72 against the American dollar, then went lower to trade at 79.74 against the greenback in early deals, registering a gain of 7 paise over the last close.
'Das is friendly, but he finally does what he does. The quality of engagement is very good.'
The rate hike in the future is set to be 'calibrated and cautious'.
Benchmark indices fell on Monday with the BSE Sensex declining 306 points, mainly dragged down by Reliance Industries. Foreign funds outflow also added to the overall bearish trend in equities on Monday. The 30-share BSE benchmark fell 306.01 points or 0.55 per cent to settle at 55,766.22. During the day, it declined 535.15 points or 0.95 per cent to 55,537.08. The broader NSE Nifty dipped 88.45 points or 0.53 per cent to 16,631.
Government is also will also enter into an agreement with Japan for a $50 billion swap.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The rally in PSBs, analysts feel, was more a knee-jerk reaction to the development, and the actual benefits will start to accrue once the addition takes place in 2024. "The actual benefit for banks from the inclusion in JP Morgan's EM Index will accrue from June 2024 onwards. "Until then, the larger fundamentals of the market will dictate the moves. "Once the initial euphoria subsides, bond markets will look to global cues which may trigger fresh selling," said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
Investors' wealth on Thursday tumbled over Rs 2.81 lakh crore as stocks declined in line with selloff in global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark index tanked 581.21 points or 1 per cent to settle at 57,276.94. During the day, it cracked 1,418.79 points to 56,439.36. In tandem with weak trend in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms tanked Rs 2,81,147.38 crore to Rs 2,59,97,419.48 crore.
A weak dollar in overseas market in view of the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate strengthened the rupee value.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
'Currently, 81 per cent of all reserved tickets are booked through e-ticketing.'
Observing that US' economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace, US Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the central bank might need to intervene if policymakers enact short-term spending cuts that hurt growth.
Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of former premier Nawaz Sharif, is expected to become Pakistan's new prime minister as the coalition of leading political parties led by them is set to comfortably cross the simple majority mark to form the next government after elections produced a split mandate.
Fed rate hike 'makes sense,' says US reserve bank president.
Defending champion Novak Djokovic tops the draw while new world number one Ash Barty is top seed in the women's singles.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
The domestic stock market may face volatility amid the monthly derivatives expiry scheduled this week, while investors would mainly await the outcome of RBI's interest rate decision on Friday, said analysts. Global market movement would also continue to drive sentiment amid a bearish trend recently following rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take cues from its global counterparts to raise interest rate for the fourth time in a row to control inflation.
The apex bank also noted that manufacturing activities slowed down in certain parts of the country.
If indeed we want the board to manage the RBI, probably the government should take a close look at the US Federal Reserve system which has a two-part structure - a central authority in Washington, DC, and a decentralised network of 12 Federal Reserve Banks located throughout the country, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Smaller stocks have emerged as Dalal Street's favourites in 2023 that has turned out to be a "great year" for equities, rewarding investors with big gains, driven by optimism over the country's macroeconomic fundamentals and heavy retail investors participation. Experts said equity markets are experiencing a prolonged bull run and it is during this time that the midcap and smallcap segments tend to outshine their larger counterparts. Till December 22 this year, the BSE smallcap gauge has jumped 13,074.96 points or 45.20 per cent while the midcap index has surged 10,568.18 points or 41.74 per cent.
Attributing to people familiar with the plan, the Financial Times said that SEC and Federal Reserve officials were warned by Merrill Lynch about Lehman's balance sheet calculations as far back as March 2008.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
